T's intraday retreat, negative funding and Ethereum transfer paths

Holder distribution

Balances of 8 selected addresses at Ethereum block 26271532, divided by the token contract's total supply. An address is not a beneficial owner.

1. Address 0x9f01…d4ef28.1%
2. Address 0xeaf0…574c10.7%
3. Address 0x593c…5bb59.5%
4. Address 0x1cca…680e5.6%
5. Address 0x1b6f…18964.8%
6. Address 0xc4f0…b1be3.8%
7. Address 0xe47c…6bb03.5%
8. Address 0x33d2…b08a3.2%
9. All other addresses30.8%

Findings

• ObservedF01Threshold's Ethereum token contract is 0xcdf7028ceab81fa0c6971208e83fa7872994bee5, with symbol T and 18 decimals. At block 26271532 (2026-10-25 18:37:47 UTC), total supply was 11,155,000,000 T. The project's supply API also listed 11,155,000,000 T.#Primary receiptPrimary receiptPrimary receipt
• DerivedF02The first 8 addresses in the initial holder ranking were selected, then their balances were checked at Ethereum block 26271532. Together they held 69.23% of total supply. The first selected address, 0x9f01…d4ef, held 28.14%; the first 3 selected addresses together held 48.35%. All percentages use the Ethereum contract's total supply as denominator.#Primary receiptPrimary receipt

• ObservedF03At Ethereum block 26271532, 0xeaf0…574c returned 2 for getThreshold and listed 3 signing addresses in getOwners: a 2-of-3 Safe. Its balance was 10.72% of total supply.#Primary receiptPrimary receipt

Flow map

Five selected Ethereum T transfers verified against receipts. Each pair of equal-amount transfers is shown separately; the diagram does not represent net flow or beneficial ownership.

Findings

• ObservedF04On 2026-10-25 at 18:07:59 UTC, 0x33d2…b08a transferred 343,554.33331922 T to 0x41fb…f6f9. At 18:13:59 UTC that day, the intermediate address transferred an equal amount to 0x28c6…1d60. Both receipts contain a Transfer log from the T token contract.#Primary receiptPrimary receipt
• ObservedF05On 2026-10-25 at 18:23:59 UTC, 0x33d2…b08a transferred 241,221.15544309 T to 0x41fb…f6f9. At 18:32:35 UTC that day, the intermediate address transferred an equal amount to 0x28c6…1d60. Both receipts contain a Transfer log from the T token contract.#Primary receiptPrimary receipt
• ObservedF06On 2026-10-25 at 18:07:47 UTC, 0x9b0c…8d46 transferred 18,216,964 T to 0x15da…b0d7, approximately 0.16% of Ethereum total supply.#Primary receiptPrimary receipt

Binance open interest over time

Binance TUSDT open-interest notional, sampled every five minutes. Original observation timestamps are retained.

Binance funding (per hour)

Finalized funding rates divided by the observed gap between settlements, in hours, for hourly comparison only. Negative values mean shorts pay longs.

Price and event times

Completed hourly candles, plotted at their close timestamps. The marker identifies a funding settlement.

Dashed flags mark event times; price points are candle close times.

1. 2026-10-25 09:00:00 UTC 09:00 UTC: adjacent settlement interval 1 hour

Findings

• ObservedF07Binance's TUSDT perpetual ticker at 2026-10-25 18:35:35 UTC showed a last trade of 0.0054600 USDT, a rolling 24-hour price change of +20.079%, and quote turnover of 292.35M USDT. These readings cover one exchange's perpetual contract.#Primary receipt
• DerivedF08Binance's finalized records show a funding rate of -2.000000% at 08:00 UTC on 2026-10-25, 4 hours after the preceding settlement; -1.049455% at 09:00 UTC, after 1 hour; and -0.304057% at 18:00 UTC, after 1 hour. Negative rates mean shorts pay longs. These are observed gaps between settlement records. For an hourly comparison, divide each settled rate by its gap: 08:00 gives -0.500000% per hour and 09:00 gives -1.049455% per hour. The latter has a larger absolute hourly rate. These comparison values are not actual account payments.#Primary receiptBinance funding convention
• DerivedF09Between 2026-10-25 00:00:00 and 2026-10-25 18:35:00 UTC, Binance TUSDT open-interest notional rose from 1.3790M to 6.6276M USDT (+380.62%). The raw quantity field rose from 298,016,923 to 1,213,839,469 (+307.31%). Quantity retains the source's units.#Primary receipt
• DerivedF10For completed hourly candles on 2026-10-25, from 00:00:00 to 17:59:59 UTC, the first close was 0.0071920 USDT, the final close was 0.0054760 USDT, and the high was 0.0075870 USDT. Chart points use candle close times. The first close was at 00:59:59 UTC and the final close at 17:59:59 UTC, a change of -23.86%. The first candle opened at 0.0046270 USDT and closed at 0.0071920 USDT.#Primary receipt

Out of scope

• The holder list selected 8 addresses for a fixed-block balance check. Historical holder distribution and beneficial ownership were not reconstructed.F02F03
• The recent-transfer list returned 50 entries, from which five receipts were selected. This is not a complete market-wide transfer, net-inflow or destination dataset.F04F05F06
• The two equal-amount transfer sequences establish address and time relationships only. Exchange identity, execution of sales and price causality have not been established.F04F05
• Holder data for Base and Optimism were unavailable; Solana was outside this EVM investigation.F01
• The source rejected the full-interval eth_getLogs request. No total 24-hour on-chain transfer volume is estimated.F04F05F06
• No Binance announcement for this settlement adjustment or contract quantity specification was acquired. Settlement intervals are inferred only from finalized-record spacing.F08F09

Limits shared by all reports: "What the data can't tell you".

Open questions

• Who is verifiably associated with 0x41fb…f6f9 and 0x28c6…1d60, and where did subsequent transfers go? Public attribution records, later receipts and complete interval logs are needed.F04F05
• What were the position composition and settlement rules during the open-interest expansion? Exchange announcements, contract quantity specifications and more detailed trade and position records are needed.F08F09